It’s 8:30am. The index is down sharply, the headlines are unhelpful, and one of your biggest holdings is suddenly off 7% despite no obvious company news. Volatility has returned. This is the moment a lack of process can destroy you. Volatility compresses time and makes decisions that ought to be part of a long-term strategy […]
There is, among novice investors, a persistent tendency toward feverish impatience. When markets tremble, headlines blare, and portfolios lurch, the inexperienced are seized by a dangerous impulse: to act immediately, and often unwisely. Yet it is precisely in such moments that the wiser course is often one of stillness. When global markets collapse, even the
Navigating Volatility: Lessons from the Classics Read More »
Before we begin, I must extend a word of apology to regular readers for my absence for the past three months. Life, as it sometimes does, has gathered pace – not least due to the demands of a recent promotion in my professional role, as well as the growing commitments of the podcast. Though I
Steady Hands and Seasoned Judgment: Meditations on the Spring Investment Landscape Read More »
In the ever-evolving world of finance, it is the discerning investor who recognises that fiscal policy changes are not merely legislative adjustments but harbingers of new opportunities. The latest UK budget reforms, published last Wednesday by our first ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer, offer much for the astute investor to consider. Initial reactions to
In 2007, one of the world’s biggest investment banks, Lehman Brothers, collapsed into bankruptcy after suffering months of share price declines amid rumours of its subprime mortgage exposure. For those readers of a more tender age, the investment banking system had basically loaned funds to property investors that were fundamentally incapable of keeping up with
The Chinese property market – is it Lehman Brothers part II? Read More »
Anyone with half an eye on financial markets will have seen the headlines about Silicon Valley Bank becoming insolvent over the last few days. The situation is rapidly escalating and with it the entire financial press and half of my financial contacts have become consumed by producing coverage. I am joining them. In this article,
It feels like a constant mantra when I sit to write a new article but I hardly know where to start this week. So much has happened that I feel as though I could almost write an article a day and still struggle to keep up with events. Rather than try to dissect all the
Well, we’re having quite a year aren’t we? UK inflation is now comfortably over 10%, the Bank of England base rate is at 2.25%, the FTSE250 is at 17,250, we’ve had three Prime Ministers, four Chancellors, COVID is still floating around, the war in Ukraine is still grinding on, the pound has fallen further against
A recent scroll through my Twitter feed uncovered one of two responses to the recent market volatility. Firstly, that the world is ending, we’re all doomed and accordingly that someone’s portfolio has been smashed to smithereens. Alternatively, that this is all temporary, that anyone urging caution is an idiot, and that investors really ought to
Blimey. Well, I don’t know if crazy is the right word for it but if you’d told me back in 2019 that over the next two years I would face a multi-year global pandemic, a stock market rout, a six month recovery following by ever more rich valuations, then a collapse of global supply chains,
In 2008-09 we had a financial crisis; a credit crisis that required immense levels of government intervention in global financial markets. In the case of the UK, this included hundreds of billions of pounds in quantitative easing and an effective elimination of positive interest rates. Several UK banks required direct injections of capital and one
Sovereign Debt Crisis: The economic consequences of COVID-19 Read More »
I was speaking to a fellow investor over the Christmas break about how they had positioned their portfolio for 2021 and the challenges in finding growth in the UK stock market. In today’s article, I’m going to recap on some of our conversation points about the challenges facing the Financial Time Stock Exchange indices (FTSE
Where will UK stock market growth come from in 2021? Read More »
Most investors will be aware of the 60/40 model for cautious investors seeking growth in the markets whilst avoiding the turbulence of a pure equity portfolio. In this model, the portfolio is comprised of 60% equities and 40% bonds. Historically, bonds have much lower volatility than equities, causing the overall value of the portfolio to
A long-standing reader of my blog called me last week asking whether I was going to be writing an annual update on General Electric. For those of you not in the know, I’d recommend reading my original post detailing the history of the company (you can find a link here) and then reading this article
NIRP – Negative Interest Rate Policy. ZIRP – Zero Interest Rate Policy. For around fourty years, bonds have been in a huge bull market with rates falling further and further. For as long as I can remember, the basic formula of lending money has been a simple one; “I lend you money and after an
